Sunday, April 27, 2008

Boob Tube Speculation

I try to avoid TV show spoilers at all costs, so what follows is my spoiler-free speculation on what might be happening next on my favorite TV shows. Those who do read spoilers will probably know if these speculations are close to the truth or way off (probably the latter), but it's fun to guess.

The Office

The one exception to avoiding spoilers I have is that I allow myself is to read the titles of upcoming episodes. If possible, I would avoid even this information, but OfficeTally has the titles of upcoming episodes in the upper right hand corner of the page, kind of making the decision for me. At one time I thought about using the Firefox extension greasemoney to try to block just that box, but that probably wouldn't work without messing up a lot of sites, so I gave up on that. So from this I know that the title of next Thursday's (5/1) episode is Did I Stutter?. My first guess for what this episode might be about, which I had a few weeks ago, was that Ryan was going to fire Michael. Then after Chair Model I thought that in this episode Jim might propose to Pam. Then after Night Out I thought maybe in this episode David Wallace would fire Ryan, send him back to Scranton, and Jan would get her old job back. My best guess right now is that Jim is going to propose to Pam. And I have a bad feeling that she's going to say something other than "Absolutely, I do." In Chair Model, when Jim and Pam started talking about marriage at her desk, the way she had trouble finding her words explaining things and then the way she watched Jim walk back to his desk with a little smile on her face like she was waiting for him to turn around and indicate he was joking suggests to me that another engagement and marriage are not on Pam's mind for the immediate future.

The episode after that is titled Job Fair. For some reason I think this episode might be similar to The Convention. This title obviously suggests someone is going to be fired or quit their current job, or maybe Dunder Mifflin is going to have a booth at a job fair looking for some new employees.

For the past few weeks the season finale was just listed on OfficeTally as Season Finale, but I just noticed that it's been updated on OfficeTally (within the last 12 hours) to an actual title, Goodbye, Toby. OMG, Toby is really leaving! Hopefully he's going to go to the corporate office or something like that so he'll still be on the show. The Office would not be the same without Toby Flenderson, if nothing else as a sponge for Michael's contempt. The scene in The Deposition when Michael pushes Toby's tray of food off the table is one of my favorite scenes from Season 4.

LOST

Wow has this show picked up the pace in Season 4. One of the big mysteries in the Season 3 finale was the identity of the person in the casket. I originally thought it was probably Ben. But after watching the Season 4 episodes that have aired so far that does not seem very likely. And perhaps almost as important as the Season 4 episodes in changing what I think will happen on lost is Lost: A Theory on Time Travel by Jason Hunter. This is fan speculation explaining many of the central questions about LOST. While I don't agree with many of the details, I think a lot of the central ideas are probably mostly correct. It's so good that after reading it I wondered if I made a mistake, since even though it's just speculation and not technically spoilers, some of it is almost certainly correct. So if you haven't read that yet, and you don't want spoilers, maybe think twice about doing so. Because once you do you can't go back in time and undo it.

So, like I said, after watching the Season 4 episodes and reading that, it seems unlikely that Ben is the one in the casket. My current best guess is John Locke, with Michael being my second guess.

Another huge thing is what happened to everyone else that's not one of the Oceanic 6, especially Claire and Jin. My guess is that most of them are still alive on the island.

Regarding what's going to happen during the rest of Season 4, I don't have too many ideas besides what we know, that the 6 are going to get off the island somehow, plus a bunch of things that seem likely based on the basic ideas in Lost: A Theory Of Time Travel.

Battlestar Galactica

Over a year after the incredible Season 3 finale, Season 4 has now finally started airing. Even though 4 episodes have aired, few questions have been answered. Most notably, of course, the identity of the 5th cylon. So far they've been stringing us along, making us think it's a certain individual, only to then show it's probably not them, and then making us think it's someone else, and so on. It reminds me a lot of Season 3 of Nip/Tuck, and the mystery of the identity of The Carver, and it ended up being the obvious person (along with a second person who occasionally helped, who I did not think was as obvious). The person who, might I add, I originally suspected, the second he said he had previously been in Sudan helping war victims. The problem with figuring out the final cylon is that it's not as obvious as that was. The first few Season 4 episodes first made me think the final cylon might be Starbuck, and then Baltar, but now I doubt it's either of them.

A few days ago on Digg there was an article with speculation on who the final cylon might be. While I think the article is creative and the author is willing to think outside the box, I think his guess is completely wrong. The article did contain one helpful bit of information, however. There's a promo picture titled Battlestar Galactica: The Last Supper. According to the article, the final cylon is not anyone in the picture. This would mean that it's not Starbuck, Baltar, Agathon, President Roslin, Admiral Adama, Lee Adama. While searching for the link to that article from Digg, I ran across this article detailing why it makes sense that the final cylon is Lee. But since Lee is in that last supper picture, then it can't be him, right?

So that leaves it to be one of the secondary characters, which I don't like nearly as much as if it had been one of the main characters. Hopefully they handle it in a way so it makes sense and doesn't involve a lot of trickery / deception before it's revealed.

One big mystery about the final 5 cylons is why they're separated from the other 7 cylon models, and why the 7 aren't supposed to talk about them. My guess is that there was a big disagreement between the 12 about something a long time ago (relatively speaking, anyway; the skin jobs haven't been around for that long, have they?), and the 5 went their own way, ending up in the fleet. While it's not clear if they're covert agents or they wanted to join humanity, or if the 5 cylons in the fleet are the only versions of the 5 cylon models, or if like the other skin jobs there are many copies of them somewhere else. I would not be surprised if the fleet finally finds Earth and it's populated with millions of copies of these 5 cylons.

One final guess I have, which I came up after watching the first episode of Season 4, is that Lee is going to become the President after Roslin dies of cancer. That's probably the most obvious thing in the world, though, after the scene where Lee told his father that there was "a position" opening up in the government that he was going to take, and since then has become more outspoken as a member of the quorum. If that happens, that would certainly make things more interesting in the seemingly unlikely event that Lee does indeed turn out to be the final cylon.

Friday, April 25, 2008

New Music

My current Winamp playlist:

1. Alanis Morissette - Underneath
2. Nine Inch Nails - Discipline

Friday, April 4, 2008

The worst episode of South Park ever?

For my favorite television programs currently on the air, namely The Office, Lost, Battlestar Galactica, and Family Guy, almost all of the episodes are very good. Sure, some episodes are better than others, but very few episodes are downright bad.

The same cannot be said for South Park. It seems like half the episodes are awesome, and the other half are simply awful, with few in between. To be sure, there have been some incredible South Park episodes that are both hilarious and insightful. These awesome episodes include Starvin' Marvin In Space, Cherokee Hair Tampons, The Biggest Douche In The Universe, Cancelled, Good Times With Weapons, Woodland Critter Christmas, and Free Willzyx. But there have also been some episodes which are unfunny, idiotic, and simply painful to watch. These awful episodes include Rainforest Schmainforest, Jakovasaurs, Butt Out, Something Wall-Mart This Way Comes, Two Days Before The Day After Tomorrow, Smug Alert!, and ManBearPig.

So far 4 episodes of Season 12 have aired, and the episodes are decidedly mixed. Tonsil Trouble, the season premiere, was decent, Britney's New Look was bad, Major Boobage was pretty funny, and Canada On Strike, the most recent episode, is easily one of the worst South Park episodes ever.

The episode attacks the recent Writer's Guide Of America (WGA) strike as not being worth it. To make the point, the episode features a fictional general strike of all of Canada, with them demanding "some of that Internet money." To show how ridiculous the idea of "Internet money" is, the episode features the cartoon likeness of some people that have been in some of the most popular and well-known Internet videos, including Tay Zonday (of Chocolate Rain fame), Ghyslain Raza (AKA Star Wars Kid), Chris Crocker (the leave Britney alone guy), Tron Guy, the dramatic chipmunk, as well as a few others, talking about how many "theoretical dollars" they would have if they were able to make money off of all the views their videos have gotten on YouToob (the show's version of YouTube).

Obviously, there's a world of difference between a YouTube video that becomes an Internet sensation, and a professionally produced weekly television show. Most of these viral videos that became Internet sensations cost nothing to create. Most of the viral videos which propelled each of these people to Internet fame are very brief, lasting only a few seconds to a few minutes. Also, it should be noted that not all of these Internet stars wanted the fame that they got, such as the Star Wars Kid. But for the willing, uploading your video to YouTube represents a clear and conscious decision: The chance at fame (the vast majority of user created videos on YouTube obviously do not give the people in them even a little bit of temporary stardom), at the cost of possible fortune. They could of course instead put their videos on their own sites along with advertising to make money when people watch them, but putting the video on their own obscure site would get them significantly fewer people watching the video. In this case the video would probably never become a hit in the first place (although if it's good someone would probably just upload it to YouTube anyway), and then they'd get neither fame nor fortune.

While the Internet has long been a great place to get unofficial releases of television programs and movies, over the past few years the networks and studios have finally gotten their act together and started to use it to officially distribute shows. A few examples of official outlets where you can buy, rent, or watch TV shows and movies include iTunes, Amazon Unbox, Hulu, Netflix, and others. The services differ in what they offer, and on some you buy or rent digital copies of programs and movies, while on others you can watch episodes free of charge, but then they have advertisements that you can't skip.

Near the end of the episode, Kyle delivers this monologue summing up the South Park creators' point of view:

"We thought we could make money on the Internet. But while the Internet is new and exciting for creative people, it hasn't matured as a distribution mechanism to the extent that one should trade real and immediate opportunities for income for the promise of future online revenue. It will be a few years before digital distribution of media on the Internet can be monetized to an extent that necessitates content producers to forgo their fair value in more traditional media."

In the episode, this monologue is spoken very quickly, probably to try to disguise how idiotic this line of reasoning, and therefore the basis of the entire episode, is.

The WGA strike was necessary because the networks are making money now off of the online distribution of television program by either selling episodes outright or by selling advertising that must be viewed when the episodes are watched, or both. Under their previous contract the writers didn't make any off of this new delivery method, and since the Alliance Of Motion Picture And Television Producers (AMPTP) obviously wasn't going to give them a fair deal for these new revenues out of the goodness of their hearts, the strike was necessary. In the short term, the strike cost the writers and others who work in the entertainment industry more than they'll get in the first few years of the new deal. But as the Internet becomes an increasingly popular delivery method, and supplants traditional content delivery (i.e., TV), this income will increase and will be be integral to the their livelihood. If the writers waited until the Internet took over as the primary content delivery mechanism, then while they might have a better idea of what exactly a fair deal might be, they would then be in a weaker position to actually get it. By acting now the WGA avoided this negative risk.

The ironic thing here is that South Park episodes are available for purchase and download on the XBOX Live service, so you can download episodes to your Xbox 360. The first episode that was available, the fantastic Good Times With Weapons, was available for free for a limited time, but now the episodes cost money to download. While I couldn't find recent exact pricing information for South Park episodes, it seems that most shows on Xbox Live cost $3 an episode to download. Trey Parker and Matt Stone, the creators of South Park, are in a unique position in that they both write and produce South Park. Considering this, I'd assume that they make money on these downloads even if the WGA had not renegotiated their contract with the AMPTP. Needless to say, for the vast majority of writers this is not the case. Thanks to the WGA strike, however, now they will.

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

MIT Blackjack Team Sets Sights On DMI

Cambridge, MA - The infamous MIT Blackjack team has reportedly stepped away from the blackjack tables and turned their attention to an online game based around a popular TV show. Dunder Mifflin Infinity, or DMI for short, is an online game based on NBC's The Office. In it, people complete various tasks to earn SchruteBucks, the currency of DMI.

The MIT blackjack team's exploits are the basis for the new Hollywood movie 21. The movie is based on the 2003 book Bringing Down The House by Ben Mezrich. Both detail how a team of students from MIT were able to use perfect strategy and teamwork to beat the casinos at blackjack, and sometimes walk away with over a hundred thousand dollars in a single weekend.

One of the team's members, who wished to remain anonymous, said, "With all the publicity from the movie we're going to have to lay low for awhile. DMI gives us the perfect opportunity to keep our minds sharp and earn some moolah on the side."

While the team was understandably mum about what strategies they were planning to use to conquer DMI, the team was not shy about discussing what effect they expected their strategies would have on DMI. One team member said, "MIT on DMI is going to be like an asteroid hitting the Earth, and MIT is the asteroid, and DMI is the Earth."

After a few boilermakers, one of the team's junior members let one of the team's secret strategies slip. He said, "First, we're all going to join the same branch. Then when a branch vote comes up we're all going to vote for the same team member's entry. Booyah! 200 SchruteBucks in the bank!"

At publication time it was not yet clear whether the MIT team understood that SchruteBucks could only be used to buy virtual items to decorate a virtual desk on one's DMI profile page, or that each SchruteBuck only has a cash value of 1/100th of a cent. DMI's current SchruteBuck leader, a person with the username dundermifflininfinity, has so far earned 9,180 SchruteBucks in the 6 months that the DMI game has been running. He has spent 4,120 SchruteBucks on virtual items for the virtual desk on his profile page, leaving him with 5,160 SchruteBucks, which are worth $0.51 US dollars.

Just as blackjack and other forms of gambling have their many critics, DMI is not without its critics, either. Critics contend that DMI is little more than a way for NBC to generate extra ad revenue with banner ads and exploit the good will, creativity, and free labor of fans of The Office to generate commercial products using their ideas without having to pay them in real dollars. The first task at DMI, create a branch logo, paid users 50 SchruteBucks (0.5 cents in US Dollars) for designing a logo for their branch, and 200 SchruteBucks (2 cents in US Dollars) if they won their branch vote for best logo. NBC later started selling various products prominently featuring the winning logos from each branch. The products sell for up to $600.00, of which the creators of the logos do not see one cent.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

L'Avventura, La Notte, L'Eclisse, and Dan In Real Life

A few months ago I reactivated my Netflix again, and since then I've been watching entirely too many movies. Here are thoughts on a few recent ones.

About 6-7 years ago I saw L'Avventura, written and directed by the late Michelangelo Antonioni. I thought it was great, but for some reason I never got around to seeing the second and third movies in the trilogy, La Notte and L'Eclisse. Well, with the aforementioned Netflix account I could finally see them, and so when they got close to the top of my queue, I decided to rewatch L'Avventura to freshen my memory. For some reason I didn't think it was as good as I remember thinking it was. Maybe knowing the resolution (or lack thereof) took a bit of its luster away or maybe my tastes have simply changed since I first saw it.

Then La Notte arrived, and it was as good as I had remembered L'Avventura being, which is to say it was great. While L'Avventura and L'Eclisse have both been released as exquisite DVDs from the Criterion Collection, La Notte has only been released in Region 1 by Fox Lorber, so the DVD was pretty crummy, but as I said, the movie was great.

Based on this I had high hopes for L'Eclisse, but it turned out to be something of a disappointment. The stock exchange scenes with Alain Delon were probably the most exciting scenes of the trilogy, but the malaise that worked so well in the first two movies was just exasperating here. Monica Vitti, the female lead of the first and third movies, and the secondary lead in the middle movie, was great throughout. After finishing the third movie I looked her up on IMDB to see what else she's been in, and was saddened to read she has Alzheimer's.

On a significantly lighter note than Antonioni's alienation trilogy is the movie I got & watched today, Dan In Real Life. I had modest expectations for it, since from the previews the story was pretty straightforward. While obviously not in the same league as Antonioni's trilogy, this movie was a lot better than I was expecting, definitely one of the best movies from its genre I've seen in awhile. There were a lot of funny moments that weren't obvious from a mile away, and Steve Carell's performance was great -- probably the best I've seen from him so far. The chemistry between him and Juliette Binoche was surprisingly good, and I thought the story of their quick developing romance was very realistic. The real surprise of the movie though was all the awkward moments. The quantity and intensity of the awkwardness rivaled at times the second season of the original British version of The Office. Which is to say, it was great! Ever since watching that second season I've gotten into the bad habit of pausing it just as it starts to get really awkward, going and doing something else for a bit, and then coming back to the movie when I'm more ready for it. I must have done that at least 5 times during the movie.

Dan In Real Life seems to me like a really well done version of a movie from a few years ago that I had high expectations for, but ended up being pretty bad: Jersey Girl. The two movies have very similar plots, and both even feature the same song at key points, Pete Townshend's "Let My Love Open The Door." But that's where the similarities end, since in terms of the acting & chemistry of the leads, the comedy, the awkwardness, and believability, Dan In Real Life was much, much better. In fact, I would say that Dan In Real Life surpassed the high expectations I had for Jersey Girl, and Jersey Girl was below my modest expectations for Dan In Real Life. This is very similar to my opinion of the similar movies I ♥ Huckabees and Stranger Than Fiction. I had very high expectations for I ♥ Huckabees and was disappointed, and had modest expectations for Stranger Than Fiction, and that ended up being one of my favorite movies of 2006.

The Daily Show starts in 3 minutes so I will end this now.

Sunday, March 2, 2008

Goldfrapp - Seventh Tree

Seventh Tree, the new Goldfrapp album, was released last week. On Goldfrapp's first 3 albums, the sound progressed from downtempo on Felt Mountain, to uptempo on Black Cherry, to all-out electro-sleaze on Supernature. So I was quite surprised when I heard the first track on Seventh Tree, Clowns, which prominently features Allison's vocals, accompanied by only a very simple instrument arrangement. This same basic characteristc is more or less followed on the rest of the album's 9 songs. The thumping beats which were a staple on the other albums are almost entirely absent here. Needless to say, the sound is a stark departure from that of their previous albums. I think I was so surprised by the new sound that I didn't give the album a fair listen the first time I heard it, and I dismissed it as a failed experiment. But with each successive listen the album has grown on me. Unlike Black Cherry, the magnificence of which is immediately apparent, it's taken several listens before the magnificence of Seventh Tree was apparent to me. Presently Seventh Tree is my second favorite Goldfrapp album, behind Black Cherry, although I would not be surprised if before long it's my favorite.

Goldfrapp has had some great music videos in the past, including Utopia, Train, and my favorite, Strict Machine. The music video for A&E, the Seventh Tree lead single, is no exception:



I really hope that when they're done releasing music videos from Seventh Tree they release a DVD with all their music videos.

UFC 82 results

UFC 82 was last night. I don't want to spoil it for anyone who hasn't seen it yet, so if you haven't seen it yet please stop reading now.

I ended up going 8-2 on my predictions. The full results can be found here. A couple thoughts:

-While I think Anderson Silva lost the first round, he completely dominated the second round, ending the fight with 8 seconds left in the round. As the commentators noted, there really isn't anyone left for him to fight at 185. While it seems unlikely, I think it would be awesome if somehow Silva was able to fight Georges St. Pierre. The main difficulty in this is obviously that St. Pierre fights at 170, and he'd presumably be at a big disadvantage at 185. Still though, that would be a great fight to see.

-As soon as I saw that Cheick Kongo was going to fight Heath Herring, I thought that this would be an easy, easy win for Kongo, based on Kongo's excellent performances in his previous few fights, and Herring's awful performances in his previous few fights. Of the predictions I made for UFC 82, I was the most confident that Kongo would be victorious. Boy was I wrong! They looked like 2 completely different fighters last night. The commentators remarked about how improved Kongo was on the ground, but I think the big story was how improved Herring was, mainly his conditioning. He seemed slow and easily winded in his previous fights, and in this one he fought hard the entire 15 minutes.