Election predictions

Over at HuffingtonPost.com they have compiled predictions for tomorrow's elections from 26 pundits. Only 1 of the pundits, Fred Barnes, predicts a McCain victory, with an electoral college count of 286 for McCain and 252 for Obama. These are the exact same electoral totals that Bush beat Kerry with in 2004, although I assume he has PA going to McCain, and Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada going to Obama. In any case, if he seriously expects this, I think he's delusional, even if by some miracle he turns out to be correct (similar to how a person who buys a Powerball ticket and honestly expects to win is delusional even if against 150,000,000 to 1 odds they end up winning). The next lowest predicted electoral college count for Obama is Charles Mahtesian who has Obama winning 311 to 227.

Here are my predictions.

Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans 2 Independents
House Seats: 260 Democrats 175 Republicans



The two states I'm most uncertain about for the presidential election are Missouri and North Carolina.

For the Senate, the best chance for the Democrats to reach 60 is probably Jim Martin in Georgia. The polls indicate that Saxby Chambliss has increased his lead over the last few days. I'd really like to see Martin win that one even if the Democrats don't hit 60, so I'll be watching for results from that one. I'd also really like to see Kay Hagan trounce Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina. The latest poll numbers have Hagan leading by 5 points, her largest margin since polling began in May. But as with all the races, it's not over until all the votes are counted.

Tomorrow I think I'll stop at the store and get a bottle of Crown Royal. If things go as unexpected, I'll have a drink or two to celebrate. If not, I'll finish the bottle.